He has the money and message, but is that enough for Michael Bloomberg to shake up the ‘08 election?

The odds against an independent bid for the White House are long, but if Bloomberg’s life tells us anything, it is that he is often more motivated, and more successful, when other people say he cannot do something. “Stubborn isn’t a word I would use to describe myself; pigheaded is more appropriate,” Bloomberg wrote in his memoir. “To a contrarian like me, constant advice not to do something almost always starts me quickly down the risky, unpopular path.” He loves defying conventional wisdom, and like the Revolutionary luminaries he admires, he would like to mount up and ride through what Longfellow called the gloom and the light, playing the hero’s part, leading the way, making a difference. …

History is full of examples of third-party candidates who ran to force an issue forward, or to register a protest against the status quo. Bloomberg, however, will not run unless [Kevin Sheekey, Bloomberg's chief political adviser,] can convince him that winning the necessary 270 electoral votes is not only possible, but likely. The mayor would not be a vanity candidate, nor does he want to be a spoiler. If he runs, he will run to win, and there is a good case that Perot’s 19 percent in 1992 is, in Sheekey’s phrase, “the floor for an independent, not a ceiling.”

Do you think Bloomberg could emerge as a strong presidential candidate, or would he only be a “spoiler”?