It’s only going to get worse before it gets better. That’s Ben Bernanke’s somewhat dire prediction to Congress regarding the state of the economy.

On a day when stock prices swung wildly, the dollar hit another new low against the euro and further signs emerged that consumers are growing more cautious about spending, Mr. Bernanke warned that the economy is about to “slow noticeably” as the housing market continues to spiral downward and financial institutions tighten up on lending.

But in a disappointment to investors, Mr. Bernanke offered no signal that the central bank might soften the blow by lowering interest rates for a third time this year at its next policy meeting on Dec. 11.

Stock prices, which had plunged Wednesday, went on a roller-coaster ride after Mr. Bernanke testified. The Dow Jones industrial average first fell 205 points by mid-afternoon, but then clawed back most of the way and ended the day at 13,266.29, down just 33 points.

So what does this all mean for the economy?

Mr. Bernanke offered a rocky outlook for the months ahead. He said that the battered housing market had yet to hit bottom, that delinquencies and foreclosures were likely to rise and that the downturn in home building was “likely to intensify.” He predicted that personal spending would advance more slowly, because consumers are less confident and because of tighter credit conditions.

On top of all that, he said, “further sharp increases in crude oil prices have put renewed upward pressure on inflation and may impose further restraint on economic activity.”

Despite all that, Bernanke believes the economy will remain resilient and not drift into a recession: “We have not calculated the probability of a recession. Our assessment is for slower growth, but positive.”