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Shoppers ignore reality and drive the economy!
Did you shop this past weekend?
It seems like, every late November, pessimistic economic weathermen tell us the End is Near and that holiday shoppers will not be as indulgent as they have been in Days of Yore. This article suggests that American shoppers are quite immune to the hard reality of economics, though:
The Christmas pessimists err by continually viewing holiday shopping as a discretionary item, subject to the short-term whims of the economy. But the evidence suggests that buying toys for children, jewelry for spouses, and fruitcakes for those random folks for whom we have to buy presents isn’t a matter of choice. It’s compulsory at some level. And during boom and bust, Americans take the necessary measures to ensure they have enough cash to spend. From an economist’s perspective, that may be the true meaning of Christmas.
In other words, holiday shopping always remains strong, despite high oil prices or a “bad” housing market, because holiday shopping has become a staple – almost as necessary as food and water. Is that good or bad?
back to top23 Comments to “Shoppers ignore reality and drive the economy!”
I don’t advocate reckless, unrestrained spending. However, two of my nephews work in retail at the moment, and I’m thankful that they have jobs. The weekend also probably boosted my 401K a bit. So, thanks to all you shoppers.
Our kids begged to go out, so we did. I think we came home with five items–a book for each kid and a couple of things that they bought with their own money.
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“Did you shop this past weekend? ”
No. It was Thanksgiving weekend and I spent it with family and friends being thankful. My wife did go grocery shopping, and bought some snow flakes and lights for the breakfast room.
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Shop?
I wanted to be in the shop, but I was too busy putting gutters up after an expensive roofing adventure….
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The mass media seem to have a quantum effect where making observations on various things tends to make them become true.
Some examples:
“PlayStation 3’s are rare and everyone is buying them up!”
“Hard times ahead! Better hang onto your hard-earned cash!”
“Tickle Me Elmo is this year’s hot item that every kid is asking for and you’re a bad parent if you can’t get one by whatever means possible!”
“Gas prices will be on the rise this summer!”
“MySpace is a has-been! Anyone that is cool has ditched MySpace and moved to FaceBook!”
By altering the expectations of a vast many people, they often create self-fulfilling prophesies.
Even when the facts are completely against the mass media’s observations (in the case of social networks, for example, MySpace is still 3x the size of FaceBook in membership: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/25/technology/25social.html), the very act of making an prediction tends to make each prophecy self-fulfilling. Because of all the (paid-for?) hype, I wouldn’t now be surpised if MySpace does lose to FaceBook in the long haul.
So, while I’m not exactly a spend-crazy economy-boosting Christmas-is-all-about-gifts kind of individual, I’m still glad that shoppers stuck it to The Man and made their own reality/destiny instead of what the media prophesied for them to do.
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Hmmm…I don’t know. Sure Americans will shop for Christmas. But from what I’ve read, they are “down shopping”. People that used to shop a Neiman Marcus are going to Target, and people that used to shop at Target are going to Big Lots.
The mid-level mall based stores like JC Penney and American Eagle are hurting. Retailers are offering a lot more discounted items this year, and are doing it earlier than usual. The number of on sale items for “Black Friday” was up this year.
I haven’t seen the numbers for this year’s “Black Friday” yet, but anecdotally it didn’t seem as crowded this year. While I didn’t go out Friday, I did go out Saturday and it seemed like a normal Saturday around the stores. Maybe it will pick up, but I just get a sense that people are being cautious this year. That’s just my opinion anyway.
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That’s because the Big Lots and the Wal-Marts are the places to find the best deals, Anlir. Holiday sales were higher this year than they’ve been for several years, and the libs hate that because they’re all about gloom-and-doom (and it goes against their predictions of economic recessions).
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Going into debt just to buy gifts? I know alot of people do it, but I can’t understand it. Maybe todays adults were never taught the difference between needs and wants when they were children.
Good year or bad, our children each get just one gift under $20. They love it. This year we will hopefully have extra to send to a missionary family in Mongolia.
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The economic forecast is for an increase of around 4.5% this year. Most experts are saying it will not be as much of an increase as last year.
One must also look at where the spending is occurring. The wealthy are providing the bulk of that increase in the last few years. The middle class is flat in their spending, and the poor is down in their spending.
“Lib hate” has nothing to do with it. $3.00 gas, higher home heating costs, job uncertainty, and mortgage increases are the factors. Not everything is about conservatives or liberals.
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The fact remains, Anlir, that so-called Black Friday sales this past weekend were the highest they’ve been in three years.
And it’s only liberals (like you and Hamachitwo) who are denying it, so yes it is a liberal/conservative issue. After all, it’s the conservatives who are saying the economy is great, and it’s the liberals who are saying the economy is tanking.
All the data (employment, inflation, interest rates, sales) report that the economy is doing just fine.
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Preliminary figures from ShopperTrak RCT Corp. , which monitors sales at more than 45,000 retail outlets, found that business dropped off dramatically on Saturday, resulting in the weekend’s results being weaker than a year ago. Actual results for Saturday won’t be available until Monday.
Wal-Mart also reported weaker than expected sales.
CNN’s money.com reports that sales were stronger on “Black Friday” than last year, but still on track for a 4.5% over-all increase, which is less than last year’s 6% increase.
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I guess Wal-Mart and ShopperTrack are part of the vast liberal-wing conspiracy.
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Outkast,
Do you just make stuff up? What did I deny? I said I didn’t go shopping. Go troll another board.
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I didn’t say in post 9 that you were denying anything, Hamachi. I was merely saying that you’re a liberal.
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I don’t do the Black Friday sales. I don’t enjoy the craziness.
I did drag my husband out yesterday for an hour to a KMart store and a BigLots – looking for some outside Christmas decorations.
We usually go on a Tuesday or Wednesday during the season to avoid the crowds. But I do alot of online shopping anymore as well.
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Anlir, I see where 6000 people applied for 300 openings at a Walmart in Cleveland. The article says:
” When thousands of people compete for a few hundred ordinary jobs, trend watchers say it’s an indication not only of a less-than-stellar economy but also of a workforce short on marketable skills.”
http://tinyurl.com/2tc8wz
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I guess my wife’s snowflakes weren’t enough.
NEW YORK (AP) — Wall Street sold off sharply Monday as concerns about a weakening credit market wiped out investors’ enthusiasm about strong retails sales over the holiday weekend. The Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 130 points.
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H-2
You’ve been called a “liberal”. Yikes! That’s like 10 steps below a child molester! How will you ever show your face in public again? Do your wife and children know you’re a liberal? Do you think she’ll leave you if she finds out? You better think about your life and get it together buster!
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Anlir, you’re cracking me up today! At least least I wasn’t called an authoritarian neo-conservative
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All the data (employment, inflation, interest rates, sales) report that the economy is doing just fine.
You must not listen to the Fed. Try it some time. Or read home sales reports. Try it some time.
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Lester,
Shhhhh…. We like him uninformed, thank you very much. It’s more entertaining.
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Employment rates are low, inflation is low, interest rates are low, and sales last weekend were up 6.5% over last year.
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1 Hour Ago
Gloomy US Economic News Piles Up
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2007/nov/27/useconomy
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That’s a European website, #22. LOL!!
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