Marvin Olasky offers two cheers for John Calvin on the Reformer's 500th birthday. Could California go red?
Some political analysts are speculating that California’s Supreme Court decision to overturn a state ban on same-sex marriage could mean the Democratic state might crossover to the red side. Prior to the court’s ruling, California GOP pollster Stephen Kinney said John McCain’s chances of taking the state were “at best, at 20-30 percent. Right now, I think you could put it at 50-50. This ruling changes the dynamics. It will energize our voting base.”
Kinney concedes that California – the nation’s heftiest electoral prize – is still widely considered “a longshot” for Republicans. But the state will be a sticky predicament for [Barack] Obama, who does not back gay marriage itself, only “civil unions.” Conservative voters may not make the same distinction. Kinney notes that Proposition 22, the anti-gay marriage initiative vacated by the Court’s ruling, was supported by 61% of Californians in 2000.
Not everyone thinks the ruling could prompt a major electoral shift. “It’s obviously going to be polarizing,” says pollster John Zogby. “But will it be an election changer? Probably not. Take your navy blue crayon and color California in on the election map.” Gavin Newsom, the San Francisco mayor who received death threats when he ordered marriage licenses for same-sex couples in 2004, told TIME that “Republicans need a bigger issue this year. Gay marriage is not going to work.”
What’s your take: Is California’s gay marriage ruling an election changer?
back to top33 Comments to “Could California go red?”
People don’t vote on one issue alone. They vote on a combination of things. They get an overall “feeling” about the candidate and a sense of whether or not things will go the way they want if that candidate is elected. They weigh things out, and yes, some issues carry more weight, but some smaller issues tip the scales.
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That ruling has quite a lot of folks upset here in CA. It may be an “election changer” at the state level, but I don’t see it affecting the national election.
Like NJL said, it is only one issue among many. The economy and foreign policy are still the big ticket issues.
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California is lost to Republicans and conservatives.
Hordes of illegal immigrants flowing into California will make it impossible for conservatives to win in that state.
Texas and Florida (just for starters) will follow the same pattern making an Electoral College lock for any liberal Presidential candidate.
The America we all know will soon cease to exist.
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California is “traditionally Democratic”?
Are you nuts? Have you no idea what the word traditional mean?
Or are you simply completely ignorant of American politics?
California has not been ‘traditionally Democratic”. In fact, the exact opposite is the case. Until quite recently, California was one of the the most conservative states in the union. From 1950 to the early 90s, CA voted for the GOP presidential candidate every time.
Traditionally Democratic? Right.
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And, if you want to know why this traditionally Republican state flipped over into the Democrat column, just read Nick Peters’ comment.
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Crunch Con Christian Rod Dreher had this to say about the GOP and gay marriage after the CA gay marriage ruling:
“Can I just say one thing to Republican politicians? Don’t insult me this election year with your huffing and puffing against gay marriage. I don’t believe you anymore.”
http://snipurl.com/2a3ae
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No, they won’t vote for McCain. Aren’t most of the people that live in CA illegal alien, liberal, socialist, gays?
The conservatives are way outnumbered today in CA and have been for 15 years. CA is lost forever.
I’m not sure it is even part of America anymore.
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Out here in Nixon/Reaganland, the problem is not so much illegal aliens as legal immigrants–like Schwarzengger. He’s a “Republican” that has liberals and conservatives on beyond upset.
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So Texas and Florida and California will all be Democratic redoubts because Democrats will aggressively stem the flood of illegal immigration and incur the gratitude of the electorate? Or is it that you think illegal immigrants will swell the ranks of Democratic voters? I’m not following the logic here.
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I’m not following the logic here.
That assumes there’s logic there to follow. But instead there’s just xenophobia.
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#1 – “People don’t vote on one issue alone.”
Agreed. There are other issues besides the same-sex marriage redefinition. There’s also:
* The astounding arroagnce of unelected judges who overturn the will of the voters.
* The re-writing of our constitutions, federal and state, to suit liberal social activist agendas.
* The continued onslaught of vicious legal attacks on the Boy Scouts of America and their freedoms and existance.
* The decline of real education in public schools replaced by mandated social engineering (much of which is homosexual driven).
* The probable onslaught of equal marriage or union rights for polygamist advocates and others.
* The transformation of children’s understanding of marriage and family, evoking profound sexual confusion and chaos in the culture and in the future.
* And there are many other issues of concern too. Many voters care deeply about them all.
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To Steve
Immigrants are more likely to vote for Democrats because they see them as an easiest mark for government handouts, affirmative action, open borders, bilingualism etc.
In the very near future we will have so many immigrants in this country no candidate would dare be on the side of closed borders.
The U.S. has roughly 5% of the world’s population. How many of the other 95% would love to move here?
I shudder to think of the country we are going to leave for our children and granchildren. They are going to be the ones who pay for our refusal to secure the borders.
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So Texas and Florida and California will all be Democratic redoubts because Democrats will aggressively stem the flood of illegal immigration and incur the gratitude of the electorate? Or is it that you think illegal immigrants will swell the ranks of Democratic voters? I’m not following the logic here.
Apparently you’re under the impression that the millions and millions of illegal aliens who’ve flooded California and Texas have all either had vasectomies or gotten their tubes tied.
I’m assuming you have some basic working knowledge of the the birds and the bees, right?
See, those millions of illegal hispanics have millions and millions of kids once they’re here. And those kids are US citizens because they’re born here. When they’re 18, they’re entitled to vote.
Well, guess what? Hispanics vote about 2-1 Democrat over GOP. They’ve been doing so reliably for decades. And they’re continuing to do so. That’s how CA, one of the most conservative and consistently Republican states in the country, became one of the most reliably Democrat states in just a few years time.
60% of the babies being born in Texas are hispanic. The same is true, if not higher, in California. Something like 2/3 of all babies born in LA County are born to illegals.
California went first, but TX, with 60% of babies being hispanic, won’t be far behind. And Nick’s right – when Texas and its share of electoral college flips back to the Democrats, that’s all she wrote. You can forget ever seeing a conservative or GOP president again.
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Night Train: Forgive my political blunder. Perhaps it’s my age–I was born during Reagan’s presidency–but I’ve always heard California referred to as a Democratic state. I’ve edited the entry accordingly.
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California will not go GOP this year (in the absence of some sort of Reaganesque landslide – and nothing points to that now; Obama would probably have to convert to Islam AND enter into a gay civil union while spouting anyi-whitey rhetoric to turn things that substantially).
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The issue won’t be enough to give the state to McCain, though it will be closer.
In spite of the anti-gay histronics of folks on here, most people in CA have a “live and let live” attitude.
A couple of things are going to happen between now and November, if there is a vote on marriage equality:
1. Time – the passage of time tends to take the fuel out of the fire. Five months from now, I predict it won’t be the “hot” issue it is right now.
2. Marriages – In about 3 weeks marriage equality will be a reality in CA. Once the reality sets in (and people realize CA isn’t going to fall off into the ocean), there will be a reluctance to annul tens of thousands of marriages.
3. The anti-gay agenda has lost it’s punch. It just doesn’t get people riled up like it used to. Too many people have gay family members and friends now. The younger generation doesn’t think twice about the issue – it’s irrelevant to them.
There’s no way of telling whether the people of CA will vote to enshrine discrimination into their constitution. It will be close. But with signs pointing toward a huge turnout of Democrats in November, I think there just might be a chance the people will vote to uphold the ruling of the Supreme Court, granting legal equality for gay people.
Nick Peters’ and Night Train’s dream of a White Homeland, ethnically cleansed of all but their own race is so…ummm…quaint. It must be hell for them to live in a country that welcomes all, without regard for race or national origin. The poor dears.
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No Night Train, I’m not ignorant of reproductive science. You are aware, aren’t you, that illegal immigrants can’t vote. By the time their progeny are old enough to vote, assuming they’d be citizens, which is, contrary to popular belief, not automatic, their allegience to any political party and any political realignments that might occur before that time make any prediction suspect.
Additionally, the present citizens might be energized to vote now for people who take our borders and immigration laws seriously, and who are not likely to be of the Democratic persuasion.
Prince William County, VA, where i reside, recently authorized police with specific training to cooperate and collaborate with Immigration officers when dealing with suspected illegal immigrations. A subsequent exodus of illegal immigrants gathered local press attention. Present policies can affect demographics.
Not only does your conclusion that Democratic Party ascendancy necesarily follows illegal immigration, it doesn’t follow at all.
The more likely scenario is that the people of California, many of who live outside the San Francisco/Berkley axis, will be so tired of elitist judges ignoring the recorded majority opposition to force their own “enlightened” policies through dubious constitutinal posturing that they will rise up and seek relief by voting for Republican legistlatures.
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Ken – Illegal immigrants can and do vote. They do so illegally, but they do so.
With very distressing frequency, I talk to immigration lawyers who are trying to get their clients’ voter records expunged before Immigration officials find them (having registered to vote as a non-citizen is a bar to obtaining citizenship).
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To Anlir #16
So the U.S. welcomes “all”? I am curious, do you feel unrestricted immigration from Islamic and Hispanic countries is good or bad for this country?
And since diversity and/or multiculturalism is so wonderful for this country what parts of the Islamic and Hispanic “culture” have you adopted?
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To Ken #17
According to you it would be very hard to predict the voting patterns of future generations.
Any word from you when you believe blacks will start voting for the most conservatives candidates?
After all blacks have been in this country longer than most people so they should be all over the board on their opinions. Ironic since they are voting in the 90-95% percentile for Obama.
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Nick,
Good for the country.
It’s not a matter of me personally adopting another person’s religion or culture. It’s a matter of not being fearful of it.
What has made America unique is that we have historically welcomed people from all over the world, without regard to their race, nationality, religion, or customs. As long as a person obeys the laws, they are welcome to take their place in America.
America was founded on an idea, not a particular race.
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#2 Adios hit it. This ruling is not an election changer as far as the presidential race is concerned. None of the presidential candidates will have any control over how CA picks its judges and Californians have precious little control of their own justices. At the national level, it could play into a discussion of the kind of U.S. Supreme Court justices the respective candidates would nominate. Ultimately, that’s where the gay marriage debate will end. Hopefully, there will be a groundswell of voter who are tired of having the courts overturn democratic decisions made by the electorate. As mentioned by other bloggers, the gay marriage issue is probably not a hot-button issue for a broad swath of the national electorate. Candidates will use it to try to distinguish themselves, but only as part of a larger image they want to create of themselves. As evidenced by this thread, immigration is a much bigger issue, tied as it is to the even bigger issues of economics and our national self-image.
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To Anlir
So as long as a person obeys the law they are welcome in this country?
The U.S. has 300 million people, India has 1.2 billion (or 4 times our population).
So you would have no problem with massive immigration from India as long as they obeyed our laws?
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Anlir,
Nick views every issue through race colored glasses. Life is much easier if you step over his threads.
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Nick,
Given that the USA has a numerical limit each year on how many immigrants are allowed in, you’ll forgive me if I don’t quake in my boots (or ponder) over the prospect of “massive immigration”. Although I will note that in times past, America absorbed large numbers of immigrants without collapsing.
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#13 California went first, but TX, with 60% of babies being hispanic, won’t be far behind. And Nick’s right – when Texas and its share of electoral college flips back to the Democrats, that’s all she wrote. You can forget ever seeing a conservative or GOP president again.
Be still my beating heart!
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Joel [13] I agree with you but there is another issue that I think you missed.
Contributing to Artificially Inflated Oil Prices: On Friday, all 15 Democrats on the Senate Appropriations Committee refused to end the moratorium on oil shale development in Colorado. See the IBD article at: http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=295831226052594
Form the article:
o “Estimates put the amount of oil locked in shale in both Canada and the U.S. at more than 1 trillion barrels. Pulling out even a tenth of that would quadruple our current reserves.”
o “This is the same Congress that refuses to allow drilling in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, which holds up to 20 billion barrels of crude, or offshore, where another 30 billion await.”
o “The U.S. uses about 21 million barrels of oil a day. But only 8 million come from our own sources. That leaves a 13-million-barrel-a-day deficit that, at $126 a barrel, will cost us $600 billion to plug this year. That’s more than two-thirds of our total trade deficit.
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To Adios #24
Yes, if you skip over my responses you never have to refute anything I say or show where I am wrong.
To Anlir #25
Nice dodge on my question. So the U.S. has a “numerical limit” on the number of immigrants allowed in? That laughter you hear is the sound of millions of hispanic people entering of country illegally every year.
I guess they haven’t heard we limit immigration.
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Having lived in California for several years, I have to say it was one of the finest experiences of my life. To meet so many people from all over the world, to be exposed to so many different cultures, to live, work with, and become friends with people who were different from me, was an eye-opening and fantastic experience. I was fearful at first, and uncomfortable many times. It challenged my ideas on race, politics, religion, gender, and sexuality. Eventually I realized that people are just people. And everyone I met was in this country because they love America and want to be a part of it.
California isn’t nirvana and it has some big problems. But the pluses far outweigh the minuses. It still continues to draw people from all over. It’s home to everyone from Lynn Vincent to the Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence. How fun is that?
*****
Nick,
You originally asked me about “massive immigration” from India. I gave you my practical answer.
Now, you’ve changed the scenario to “illegal immigration” from Mexico.
My answer is essentially the same. I’m generally not worried or bothered by it. In fact, I’m sympathetic to it. If I lived in a poor country and there was a better country nearby, you bet I’d be sneaking across the border to make some money to feed my family. Overall, I think it’s a plus for both our economy (particularly the farm) and the people from Mexico (Honduras, etc.) that come here to work. I am primarily concerned about some of the working and living conditions that the migrant workers are under.
Well, I’m sure I’ve given you the vapors. Heh!
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#27 OPTW,
You haven’t even touched the surface of the left’s all out anti American, anti energy policies that has put us in financial and mortal danger today.
Their opposition to any and all energy production facilities of any kind is criminal. Want to out a wind farm of the East Coast of the US A where wind blows – nope, the jet setting, hypocritical, rich lefties like Kennedy and Komrade Koward Kerry say it blocks their multi million dollar view. Say you will put it over the horizon so they can’t see it. Oh no, no, no, a ship might hit it and it would probably be an oil tanker and foul the ocean.
Want to produce pollution free very cheap nuclear energy like the French they just love, oh no, we might have a Three Mile Island – no nukes you idiots – are you crazy. In fact, you can’t even get rid of your existing nuclear spent fuel rods by burying them miles underground in an a multi billion dollar, specially designed, foolproof facility located in an inhabitable part of Utah or Nevada or Arizona. You can’t even shoot it up to the sun and burn it up harming no one because the rocket might malfunction and God knows you don’t want that stuff left unburied in foolproof bunkers in some uninhabitable part of the world.
Sorry, no new coal or natural gas or any other kind of electrical power plants because they pollute and we need you to die quickly and let the earth live without the human virus. Plus they look horrible and I don’t want them within 1,000 miles of any animals or even humans. Sorry no coal gasification plants, no oil shale plants, no, no, no, no. Choice is good – Walking is your choice and you have chosen wisely. No, no bicycles. It takes too much energy to make all the steel and aluminum to make them, plus speed kills.
But, we are certainly willing to compromise and meet you half way by allowing you transfer the entire world’s wealth to pay $150 – $200 a barrel, for oil that you can’t build refineries for, coming from people who want you dead in the end. These Islamofascist oil potentates are just like us. We want you see you broke and when we have have you on your knees we want to see your heads roll since we have no further use for you or yours for that matter.
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Did I forget to tell you you cant ride a bike without a helmet because speed kills. Don’t try it.
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Anlir — I think you are out of the woods, gay marriage is passe, the illegal immigrant is the new gay.
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NICK H. PETERS The America we all know will soon cease to exist.
It’s a minute to midnight!
An anti-gay marriage thread takes off as an anti-illegals discussion. The world really is ending.
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