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According to a CBS News poll conducted earlier this week, John McCain and Barack Obama are in a dead heat. Last week, Obama led by eight points, but the latest survey reveals the candidates are tied at 42 percent. Continue reading here for more poll results.
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back to top94 Comments to “McCain closes the gap”
How’s Alan Keyes’ write in campaign going?
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It is 60 days until election day.
This is going to get increasinly interesting from here out.
I really wonder if the MSM will be able to deliver for the ObaMessiah, and how much more blatent it will get if the poll numbers don’t diverge soon.
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It is a shame the Republicans couldn’t have come up with a better candidate. They don’t come much more bland than McCain.
Additionally the Republicans should have picked a candidate that wasn’t so closely identified with the vile Bush.
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Barring some truly scandalous revelation about Sarah Palin, it’s over for Obama.
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According to Rassmusen, Palin is more popular that both McCain and Obama.
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Whoo-hoo!
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If Obama was not at least 10 points ahead after the Republican convention he was toast. He is way past toast. He is a more Marxist Teddy Kennedy now.
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A lot can change in the next 8 weeks. A lot.
I expect that the two candidates will be back and forth a few times in the polls.
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To Night Train, Joe B. and Llama
Please keep in mind Ms. Palin’s popularity is fleeting at best.
Obama’s popularity among blacks and anti-whites is unshakeable.
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I’m afraid this Palin vs. Obama talk is a rope-a-dope strategy by the Democrats that the GOP would be wise to avoid. This election isn’t Palin vs. Obama. It’s McCain vs. Obama.
I’m afraid the GOP will prop up Palin while the Dems remind everyone that the GOP presidential nominee is McCain.
Personally, I think it’s a little macabre to compare Palin vs. Obama – it’s tacitly implying McCain is a dead man.
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Not sure if this will amount to anything, but it makes things even more interesting:
A Pennsylvania attorney filed for declaratory and injunctive relief against Barack Obama and the DNC this week in Philadelphia. The main thrust of the suit deals with questions about Obama’s citizenship, an item that has been heating up under the surface of late. Some excerpts from the suit: “Obama committed Fraud upon Plaintiff and the American Citizens by running for President claiming to be eligible knowing he was not eligible as a result of his failure to regain his United States Citizenship and by maintaining multi citizenships with Kenya and Indonesia.”
It continues, “Obama attempted to defraud Plaintiff and the American people by allowing an altered and forged Hawaii Certificate of Live Birth (COLB) to be placed on his campaign website. Obama was well aware the Government issued COLB was altered and forged…” And finally, “Obama further attempted to defraud Plaintiff and the American People by claiming to be a United States Citizen, knowing this information to be false.” There are questions regarding Obama’s mother’s citizenship as well, and evidence that when he traveled to Pakistan in 1981, Obama used his Indonesian passport. It will be interesting to see what comes of this legal action.
http://www.PatriotPost.US
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Obama could turn this around pretty quickly if he can properly show the American people how keen and bright he is in terms of military strategy and strategic/tactical decision-making (for the commander-in-chief part of the job, you know).
Just yesterday he enthused that the ’surge’ in Iraq had succeeded ‘beyond our wildest dreams’. Presumably, by next week, he will be claiming credit for having thought up the whole concept of the ’surge’ in the first place. Previously he had gone from stating (last year) that the surge ‘would make things worse not better’, predicting it would result in complete chaos in Iraq. Then, when it looked like the ’surge’ was working, he acknowledged it had SOMETHING to do with the progress but not really that much.
If Obama was a Cub Scout Den Leader responsible for overseeing a troop of boy scouts on a nominal ten minute ‘exercise’ in a fifty foot by fifty foot square fenced city park composed of three small trees, a fire hydrant, and a water fountain (in July), he would still probably manage to get hopelessly lost, suffer 75% casulty/MIA rate for the troop, wind up dehydrated and in the hospital for three weeks, and would probably have to have some major part or piece of himself amputated, inexplicably due to frost-bite.
But, still. He should be okay as the Commander-in-Chief. As long as he does not have to actually make any decisions or develop policies involving military matters. Which surely would not be likely to happen, given the tranquil state of the world these days.
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Tom Ridge, one of the finalists for Vice President says John Bush is his own man.
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Graceland:
A lot can change in the next 8 weeks. A lot.
I expect that the two candidates will be back and forth a few times in the polls.
Agreed.
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I posted this on Whirled Views:
Just FYI:
Ok, after a week, how many Palin-related posts and comments have there been?
Answer: Since McCain picked Palin, by my count there have been 22 posts related to her, and a combined total of 2,572 comments in those posts.
One week.
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Yeah…this thread opened with the words, “According to a CBS News poll“!
Keep dreaming y’all. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com
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Then tell me Nicky, if her popularity is fleeting at best, then why does she have a 80% approval rating as Governor?
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A lot can change, but, barring some scandalous Palin revelation, it won’t. Unless there’s some bigger skeletons in her closet, the election is over.
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“Personally, I think it’s a little macabre to compare Palin vs. Obama – it’s tacitly implying McCain is a dead man.”
Lester, you just went on my list of intelligent conservatives.
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Matt-
There is a new one today, and you can expect at least one Palin thread per day between now and the election.
Not so many on McCain’s policies.
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To Matt
You are correct and it is not just on this website. If Ms. Palin is so wonderful why haven’t we heard more about her before this?
Having said that McCain had to do something. This man excites no one and the campaign was shaping up as a pro-Obama or anti-Obama election.
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Nick has a point. John McCain hadn’t even met her until last Thursday.
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These claims that the election is over and that McCain has won have got a big problem: the voting hasn’t started yet.
Perhaps the Republican Party has already paid Diebold off to rig the voting machines. That might be why they’re saying it’s already in the bag for McCain.
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Now this is the kind of CHANGE I like to see. A spine.
Obama might pursue criminal charges against Bush administration
· Biden says criminal violations will be pursued
· Democrats have issued subpoenas to Bush aides
· 3 staffers have been held in contempt of Congress
“We will not be stopped from pursuing any criminal offence that’s occurred,” he continued, going on to praise congressional committees for the deliberate pace of their inquiries into alleged Bush administration misdeeds.
Members of Congress are “doing the right thing, they’re not making false accusations about anything … they’re collecting data, subpoenaing records, they’re building a file”, Biden said.
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All these claims that I’m some sort of Republican are probably driven by homosexual rage at heterosexuals.
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I’m just curious…how many of the conservatives/Republicans on WoW agree with GOP Congressman Lynn Westmoreland that Obama is “uppity”?
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This should help energize the Christian Right. Jewish Democrat Senator Barbara Boxer says Palin is “an extremist.”
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Nick, I couldn’t tell you the names of most governors in this country. I know my own, and I know the blind guy in NY, and his name is escaping me at the moment. So, why would we hear about Sarah Palin. I only knew her from news articles about potential running mates for McCain, and had she not been selected, I’d have forgotten that rather quickly.
Godlumps, that’s only to keep the Dem base which is so angry happy.
If the two candidates are neck in neck, the truth is “bland” is working. On January 20th, Palin takes her spot at the feet of a master politician.
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There is a new one today, and you can expect at least one Palin thread per day between now and the election.
Well, one must keep in mind, that Worldmag is first and foremost a Republican website. Basically what the editors do is parrot the “talking points” memos of the RNC.
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To NJ Lawyer, Godlumps and Random Name
Do you know what concerns me? McCain has known for months he would be the Republican candidate and yet he picks Palin based on one meeting and a fews days before the convention.
I really wonder if he knew about Palin’s pregnant daughter in advance. I heard the National Enquirer was about to break the story so that is why Ms. Palin went public.
And I will believe the boy friend actually marries her daughter I see it. Never mind if is the right decision for two 17-year-olds to get married.
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Which is the bigger delusion?
The left/liberal hallucination that a President Obama would stand up to AIPAC and keep us out of another Middle East war?
The Christian/conservative fairy tale that a VP Palin would steer a McCain administration in a direction that’s more acceptable to the Christian right?
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#21 GODLUMPS,
Who needs policies if they are like ones on the left. Do you think we all want to commit suicide like you do? All we need is 4 more years of Bush
You guys never get it do ya? Or should I say you never had it to begin with too?
No one wants to be a slave to anyone else or their Marxist / Socialist ideology, especially to those that claim they really aren’t slave masters in sheep’s clothing but saviors instead. We have seen you all try to walk on water before and we still don’t like it or you.
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To Night Train
Good point.
Question: What issue did all Presidental candidates, Republican and Democratic agree on?
Answer: You guessed it. Blind, unquestioned support for Israel.
Candidates from all over the country and all with different perspectives agreeing on one thing. Amazing.
Ms. Palin already has meet and grovelled in front of the Jewish lobby.
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Conservative Feminists for Sarah Palin!!
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Well, it seems that the Democrat National Committee, Obama and his advisors, the editors of the NY Times, the anchors and top ‘newswriters’ of ABC, CNN, NBC, MSNBC, etc. have just gotten out of a top-secret meeting that was held in George Soro’s penthouse in NYC. They have made an Important Decision.
Now, it is important to note that Joe Biden was NOT invited to this particular meeting.
You see, the surprise selection of Sarah Palin by John McCain as VP nominee had utterly flummoxed these august luminaries of the Left this past week.
However, they originally had very high hopes that the orchestrated and relentless media attacks on Palin (ranging from her hairstyle to the fact that her sister’s brother-in-law’s great-uncle’s mechanic’s cousin’s favorite waitress’s dog has the mange, to the tardy slip that Palin’s daughter once got in 2nd grade) would crush this upstart and nip the situation in the bud, so to speak.
So all the big artillery of the media and the blogosphere was obligingly trundled out, loaded with enormous shells filled with the worst kind of slander and muck and filth, aimed at Palin (and her kids, too, for good measure), and then fired, one after another, with thunderous soul-shattering volleys and enormous plumes of noxious smoke.
But, lo. When the greasy dense smoke finally cleared, there stood Sarah Palin, fresh as a daisy in the summer, grinning at everybody like a possum caught eating a chicken – while all the assorted luminaries of the Democrat party and the media stood neck deep in their own muck and filth, with faces blackened and eyes bugged out in disbelief.
So, just last night this Meeting was called – a meeting that Joe Biden was NOT invited to. Everybody important was there, though – but it was a grim and somber affair, no idle chatter or light laughter.
And an Important Decision reached there. The vote was taken. The vote was unanimous. After all, something MUST be done to counter the dreaded ‘Sarah Palin effect’.
So it would seem that Joe Biden, once he is found, trapped, sedated and shipped to an obliging ‘doctor’ (recommended, you know, by Oprah who is good at this sort of thing) will no longer be known as ‘Joe’ Biden.
He will become, instead, ‘Josephine’ Biden.
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Drill – :LOL:
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So it would seem that Joe Biden, once he is found, trapped, sedated and shipped to an obliging ‘doctor’ (recommended, you know, by Oprah who is good at this sort of thing) will no longer be known as ‘Joe’ Biden.
He will become, instead, ‘Josephine’ Biden.
Or, heck, they could just him Todd Palin.
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They could just call him Todd Palin.
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NT, it was funnier the first time
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…Palin would steer a McCain administration in a direction that’s more acceptable to the Christian right?
I wonder, too, what gives people this confidence?
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I cannot think of a more dangerous scenario than having a fundamentalist Christian one heartbeat away from the Presidency.
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Drill that was laugh out loud funny. Down around these parts we would have said “like at mule eatin’ briars” but a possum eating a chicken is pretty funny.
Why are you all making such a big deal about Todd Palin staying home and taking care of the baby? So What? It ought to make the feminazi’s happy. Isn’t that part of what ERA was all about. Choices?
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I think the liberals/Democrats on WoW are whistling past the graveyard with their bold talk of an Obama victory. I read a lot of left wing blogs, and from what I’m reading in the comments on these blogs, it seems Obama really ticked off a lot of his supporters by asking Joe Biden to run with him. A lot of women are mad that he didn’t ask Hillary to run with him, and a lot of gays are mad that he didn’t ask Biden to marry him.
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All this proclaiming that McCain has got the election won is a little bit like a college winning their first football game of the season and proclaiming that they will win the BCS title game. There’s still a lot football to go folks.
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To Anlir #42
I don’t even know why I try and get a rational response out of you but I will try again.
You cannot think of a more dangererous scenario than a fundamentalist Christian elected President?
How about Stalin, Mao, Mugabe etc.?
A Christian website allows you to sprew constant anti-Christian diatribes. How tolerant is that?
What, racial, ethnic, religious group should conservative Christians pattern themselves after?
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They could just call him Todd Palin
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Last time I looked Stalin and Mao are dead, and Mugabe isn’t an American, so I supposed those “dangerous scenarios” are about as realistic as The Joker becoming President.
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Just curious, Anlir, are you gonna say that every day? If so, I’ll reply every time I see it with: She attends an Assemblies of God church. They are not fundamentalists. You can hate them all you like, but your hatred would look more informed if you got the labels right.
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If AG aren’t fundamentalist Christians, there’s no such thing as fundamentalist Christians. Give it up, Stubob.
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Why so much attention given to the polls at this stage? The ones that really count are the polls in the swing states. A lot of campaigning has ceased or is virtually nil in a number of states as both candidates have pretty much conceded in one or another.
Does anyone have a link to polls that are taken in swing states? I could not care less of a poll taken in Illinois, but one in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio or Florida will get my attention.
Obama was showing weakness going into the final 8-10 Democratic primaries. He didn’t get the necessary bounce after the convention. McCain held his own in the wings and then produced Palin. The gap is closing slowly but surely. I trust the American people will collectively come through for the better candidate in this particular election. And his name isn’t Obama.
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Night Train. If you think A/G is fundamentalist, then you don’t know the meaning of fundamentalist.
Jerry Falwell would be spinning in his grave to be associated with A/G as fundamentalists.
Do some research and you will find that A/G is evangelical/pentecostal. Nothing close to being a fundy.
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You seem to think fundamentalist means Baptist. It doesn’t. It means fundamentalist. You and Stubob should look it up sometime.
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No, Assemblies of God are not “fundamentalists.” I doubt they claim to be.
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Wow, Cheryl…you’re a professional editor and you don’t know what fundamentalist means?
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Actually Night Train, it is you who doesn’t know what a fundy is. A/G would not define themselves as fundamentalist. And fundamentalists would not define A/G that way either.
Fundamentalist are a distinctive sect within Christianity as are evangelicals, pentecostals, etc.
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Cheryl knows that AOG churches do not even claim to be “fundamentalist.” I’ve visited fundamentalist churches and I’ve visited AOG churches, and they are NOT the same.
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Really, Outkast? What’s the difference/differences?
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No, Paranoia, “fundamentalist” and “pentecostal” are not mutually exclusive.
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Cheryl, I’d love to see your explanation of why AGs aren’t fundamentalists.
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Is this it?
Fundamentalist Christianity, also known as Christian Fundamentalism or Fundamentalist Evangelicalism, is a movement that arose mainly within British and American Protestantism in the late 19th and early 20th centuries among conservative evangelical Christians, who, in a reaction to modernism, actively affirmed a fundamental set of Christian beliefs: the inerrancy of the Bible, Sola Scriptura, the virgin birth of Christ, the doctrine of substitutionary atonement, the bodily resurrection of Jesus, and the imminent personal return of Jesus Christ. Some who hold these beliefs reject the label of “fundamentalism,” seeing it as a pejorative term for historic Christian doctrine[1] while to others it has become a banner of pride.[2]
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wikipedia lists AOG as a Fundamentalist sect along with the Southern Baptist Convention.
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Cheryl knows that AOG churches do not even claim to be “fundamentalist.”
I never said they claimed to be. I said they are. Just as you don’t claim to be hopelessly uninformed but nevertheless ready to pontificate on subjects you know nothing about, yet you are.
See the difference?
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The AOG’s would be insulted to find out they aren’t fundamentalist. But it’s typical of Baptists – they think anyone who isn’t a Baptist is a dag-gum liberal and likely going to hell.
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#21 addressed me.
Nick your post #31 sounds quite sensible to me. Many of your posts do, which make me wonder why some of your posts make you sound like a racist. Though now that you are doing a number on Palin, I wonder if you are more of sexist than a racist. By and large, I don’t mind either as long as a) they are honest and straightforwad about their attitude and don’t persecute people with imprisonment, physical harm, etc. I have no impression that you would do harm to black people or women.
On the other hand, I do wonder if you have ever met a black person or a woman in person?
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I’m not a Baptist, a fundamentalist, or an Assemblies of God member, but I know where they differ. While they may have similar eschatology (with which I disagree), they have serious differences with respect to epistemology and sometimes even soteriology, and their pneumatology is completely different.
By all means, feel free to do all the fearing and loathing you want, but correct nouns are essential to intelligent discourse.
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Excuse me, I made a mistake. I was talking about #31.
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#32 is a good post also. I did a whack on NT already today, so I will wait until tomorrow to do another.
I have to evaluate the delusions as 50-50 at the moment.
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But I will get in another question for Nick. Am I Jewish? What makes a person a Jew? Does that make me an automatic member of the lobby, or just in the anteroom. I’ve never seen NT go on about Jews.
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Whether she meets with the definition of a label or not doesn’t change the fact that she has called the Iraq war a “task from God” and called the Alaska natural gas pipeline “God’s will.” You all can throw whatever semantic debates around you want, but after 8 years of a president who was told by god to invade a nation and judges foreign leaders by glimpsing their souls, Palin’s specific religious beliefs are something the McCain campaign is going to want to keep out of the MSM. In general, people are over it!
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I don’t much care about the labels; when anybody is crazy enough to describe our fight in Iraq as a mission from God, or tell friends that God wants us to build a natural gas pipeline, as Palin did, they simply have no business leading the country.
How could you ever persuade her that god is wrong? If she believes god wants us to invade Colubia or tear down the false idols of Mount Rushmore, how could you ever persuade her that God is wrong? That’s certainly less important a matter to let God decide than building a pipeline…
Of course one could conclude that Palin doesn’t really believe that God wants us to build a pipeline and is just using God for political purposes, but what does that make her?
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Luke: I hadn’t read yours first. Really!
Actually, would she be guilty of using God or just of using his believers?
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Like I said, fear and loathe all you like. Anlir said he was afraid of having a “fundamentalist” in such a position, and I’m merely pointing out that there is no possibility of that at the moment.
If you don’t know the differences between Assemblies of God and fundamentalists, I suppose you don’t think it’s a big deal to confuse Shia and Sunni, either. Boy, the national press sure did.
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#25
This would be VERY, VERY bad for the country. One of the things that makes American distinctive is that — when we have elections — the winners take over and leave the losers alone and free and safe.
In addition, the losers graciously return to their lives and accept their loss.
I don’t think most of us realize just how exceptional this is in the world.
Our losers don’t get the military behind them and refuse to leave. Our winners don’t go gunning after our losers.
No one’s family is worried.
Obama couldn’t do more to upset our American way of elections than to do something this downright stupid. What President wants to think that the next winning party can put him on trial for things he did as President?
If he did something truly wrong, then there is a manner to deal with that in the Constitution. It is called impeachment. But, impeachment is used for “high crimes and misdemeanors” not for differences of opinion. And, it is instigated by Congress, not by the next President.
A President, who went to war with the backing of the Congress (Democrats included), cannot sit and fear that his choice will later be prosecuted by a winner who doesn’t agree with him.
Not to mention, that half this country is Conservative, and they will go NUTS. The last thing Obama would get is a united people. He will have strife like the dictionary definition.
I know he is just saying this to try to make the “rabid” and wild part of his party happy, but if I had no other reason, this would be a good one not to vote for him.
It makes me severely question his judgment.
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I don’t much care about the labels; when anybody is crazy enough to describe our fight in Iraq as a mission from God, or tell friends that God wants us to build a natural gas pipeline, as Palin did, they simply have no business leading the country.
******All Christians (the vast majority of the country, btw) believe that God is in control. ALL of us.
How we say it and how it plays out may be a little different, but we ALL believe it.
So, when do the pogroms start?
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The AOG’s would be insulted to find out they aren’t fundamentalist. But it’s typical of Baptists – they think anyone who isn’t a Baptist is a dag-gum liberal and likely going to hell.
******Okay, I can’t help it.
A man dies and goes to heaven. St. Peter starts to show him around. They go past a really noisy, happy room, and St. Peter says, “Those are the charismatics. They are a fun group.” Then they go past a room with a bunch of serious, intellectual discussion, and St. Peter says, “Those are the Reformed. They really enjoy doctrinal discussions.” Then, St. Peter holds his finger to his lips and says, “Shhh, we need to sneak past the next room.” And, the guy says, “Why?” And, St. Peter replies, “That room holds the Baptists, and they think they are the only ones here.”
(No offense to any Baptists was intended by this post.)
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I cannot think of a more dangerous scenario than having a fundamentalist Christian one heartbeat away from the Presidency.
******Well, since we’ve had it in the past, and haven’t had any problems, I’m sorry that you feel this way.
Better a fundamentalist Christian than an atheist who has no basis for his morals (so they can shift at any time.)
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#34
See Nick? It is this kind of a post that keeps me from agreeing with you on other things where you make a lot of sense. Like Random Name, I wonder why you often come across as an anti-Semite, and a racist. It bothers me immensely, and makes me hesitant to be “on your side” in anything, because I can’t imagine you saying the things you do and NOT being a racist and anti-Semite.
But, since you’re so reasonable at other times, I get confused. I have a hard time imagining a well-educated, articulate person being a racist or an anti-Semite.
But, there you have it.
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#32
I don’t know. They’re probably both illusions to a great degree. Politics is politics. It really does exist to perpetuate itself more than it does to serve the people.
But, it is nice to agree with whomever one votes for more rather than less.
I can’t agree with just about anything on the Obama/Biden ticket. So, I’m pleased when I can agree with a lot more (not ALL of it, mind you) on the McCain/Palin ticket.
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Well, one must keep in mind, that Worldmag is first and foremost a Republican website. Basically what the editors do is parrot the “talking points” memos of the RNC.
*****No, it is first and foremost a CHRISTIAN magazine. After that, I would say it heavily leans Conservative. But, I don’t think there are delusions that the RNC is particularly “holy” and WMB certainly isn’t a Republican website.
It’s just that the Republicans at least TALK Conservative on occasion and their platform more closely resembles what we’d like to see. But, honestly, I don’t think most Christian Conservatives are in love with the RNC…I just think we’re terrified of the alternative.
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Dittos to all that TRS has posted.
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I have been saying for since before the conventions that the key polls will probably be the ones on the Tuesday after the Republican convention.
Right now the national polls still seem to favor Obama:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
but we will have to see if it takes some time for McCain’s convention bounce just as Obama’s convention bounce took a bit of time to solidify.
What is more interesting, however, is that there seems little real change in the electoral map:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
and at the end of the election it is the electoral map which counts.
Winning both Ohio and MIchigan appears to be critical for McCain, while Obama peculiarly enough seems to have Colorado as a critical stae.
And it is not clear that either the convention or the nomination of Palin is having much impact on the electoral map.
But I suggest that early next week will finally tell us the relative positons of the two candidates as the final stages of the election plays out.
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Guys all you have to do is go to you tube and listen to Palin’s preacher. Her church is pentacostal and fundamentalist.
Outkast on post 11 — see factcheck.org Obama’s birth certificate is real. He’s an American citizen and the suit is nonsense.
Polls will be extremely fluid and McCain should get a bounce. The time to start really giving the polls credence will be after the Sept 26 debates.
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I didn’t say the suit had any credibility, CB. I just think it’s interesting.
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In a later thread I linked to Gallup which now has a 48-44 Obama lead a slight change from the previous 49-42 but still within the margin of error. Looking at any interactive electoral college map and it will be obvious that Obama should be the favourite — Iowa and New Mexico are his. All he needs is one more state and he wins. So Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, — just one of them.
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CB, I believe that what you call a “fundamentalist” is not the same group as those who would apply that label to themselves.
I haven’t seen any of the video. What makes him a fundamentalist?
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If you’re interested, here is the Assemblies of God: http://www.ag.org
and here are the fundamentalists: http://www.ifca.org
Personally, I’m more concerned about tree-spiking Earth-Firsters than either of them.
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Don’t count out the Hawkeye state of Iowa yet, HRW. It’s very much still in play, especially after McCain picked Pain for VP.
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Godlumps – You’re fairly good at lying by ommission. Enough so as to undermine your credibility across the baord.
McCain was indeed born in Pamana: On a US military base (recognized under international law as the territory of the country whose military operated the base) – to two US citizens, one of whom was on active military duty at the time. There is no issue as to his citizenship and only the very vaguest of quibble as to how the “natural born citizen” language of the Constitution applies here (I’ve not yet see a case or law review commentary making even a reasonable case against McCain as a “natural born citizen” of the US).
The Obama citizenship and “natural born citizen” status is much more murky. I tend to think that it ought to go toward him being viewed as a “natural born citizen” but a somewhat reasonable argument could be made against it. He was apparently born in the US, but to a minor US citizen and a foriegn citizen, and their various travels before and after the birth could play a bit of havoc with the citizenship issues.
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Outkast, Real Clear Politics list polls that beg to differ;
http://tinyurl.com/5vgra5
Obama is ahead in Iowa by 15 in the latest poll, Sept. 2. In fact he went up by 10 points in the month of August.
Polls suggest Nevada, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, and New Hampshire are still vitrually tied. If the rest of the country plays out as the polls predict Obama has 260 and McCain has 227. Of the remaining 51 EVs McCain will need all but eight, which he means he must will all but one of the remaining states. He can only lose Nevada or New Hampshire but not both.
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None other than Karl Rove says Iowa is leaning toward Obama.
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HRW – What level of Bradley Effect is factored into the polls that RealClear is compiling?
How were they set up as to all of their metrics?
Polls are only as good as their metrics going in. I think this year gives a more difficult task of setting up the metrics.
So there may be much less accuracy to the polls this year.
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Wikipedia has a fairly good article on the Bradley effect and its recent demise. It also discusses a reverse Bradley effect where blacks under report their support for Obama. However the last sentence echoes my thoughts;
On average, Obama received three percentage points more support in the actual primaries and caucuses than he did during polling; however, he also had a strong ground campaign, and many polls do not question voters with cellphones, who are predominantly young.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect
For a good analysis of polls in the primary see FiveThirtyEight
http://tinyurl.com/6paw5x
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A couple of points about polling:
1. I think many people are telling pollsters what they think they want them to say, not what they are actually going to do on election day.
2. Approximately 1 in 4 Americans no longer has a land line, making any polling done strictly by phone suspect.
3. It’s still way to early to be polling people. The vast majority of Americans still haven’t made up their mind.
4. The inaccuracy of polling has caused people to question the value of it.
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