Comments on: Wisdom in a crowd

By: RR

RR — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 15:36:36 +0000

Point taken, MM. Yet IEM is only taking bets on an election three weeks from now, not that of the nine-years-distant outcome of a war that hasn’t even started.

My view: the fat lady’s about to finish her song, and hello, President Obama. One more item for Anlir’s list: McCain doesn’t seem to want the job as much as Obama does. He’ll happily step in and take advantage if the Dem shoots himself in the foot, but he’ll go to no particular trouble otherwise. You listen to his speeches and realize he just doesn’t have the fire in his belly. Maybe he knows he played the economy card poorly, a repeat of Bush 92?

Another theory to toss into to the mix: Americans instinctively prevent either party from keeping the White House for too long. After four or eight or twelve years, it’s time for a new approach, and that matters more to swing voters than the particulars of the guy offering himself as the change agent. Thus we take Carter over Ford (the stench of Nixon), Reagan over Carter (economy, Iran), Clinton over Bush I (economy, blandness), Bush II over Gore (taint of Clinton, more blandness), Bush II keeps job because we haven’t suffered enough yet, and now Obama over McCain, because Obama is differenter from Bush than McCain is. Obama will do four to eight, and then the folks in the middle will give the White House to whoever the Repubs offer as an alternative, especially if the Dems run with Biden.

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By: Michael Martin

Michael Martin — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 11:54:38 +0000

If IEM had been in place in 1936 Germany, it would have predicted continued Hitler success. So much for the wisdom of crowds.

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By: Random Name

Random Name — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 19:44:12 +0000

#7
[This is a self-righteous message.]

Perhaps, in times of peril when we finally lost our freedom, righteous people will finally unite and turn to God this time…

This will be different from all the other times “when we finally lost our freedom” how?

Is WorldMagBlog the best that can be done as far as displaying “righteous people” at work? What is the difference between “righteous” and “self-righteous”?

As a self-righteous person myself I am thinking of the vulgar expression: “Don’t try to bs a bs’r.”

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By: anthonymcng

anthonymcng — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 15:02:20 +0000

Christians would like to see the more righteous MaCain-Palin to be elected to the White House, but the latest polls might suggest otherwise….Nevertheless, we shouldn’t rely on the White House to build a righteous society/nation. It’s the Church’s job to bring the people back to God. I believe whoever’s gonna win the White House in November, our God is still in charge..as He’s always beeen….Perhaps, in times of peril when we finally lost our freedom, righteous people will finally unite and turn to God this time…

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By: tia

tia — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 00:17:12 +0000

Doesn’t it seem that IEM would tilt left given the demographic of users? They’re probably on the younger side, might not have a lot of financial responsibilities or explaining to do if they lose. I realize they are betting on the winner, not necessarily their candidate, but perhaps there is an arrogance factor that at work here. They’d be more enthused and bet more since they really want it to happen.

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By: Anlir

Anlir — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 21:41:15 +0000

I’ve never heard of IEM before, but they could be on to something.

I’m getting a sense that the wide swath of the American people are fixing to take a chance on Obama. Mind you, it’s just a feeling and I could be totally wrong, or it could all change in a heartbeat.

But I do sense a narrative is starting to build around a Republican defeat:

1. McCain’s age and health.
2. The Sarah Palin choice was faulty.
3. A sense of desperation on the part of the campaign.
4. The debates didn’t help McCain or Palin.
5. The unpopularity of Bush.
6. A lack of serious enthusiasm on the part of conservatives and CCR’s for McCain (somewhat offset by Palin).
7. The economic meltdown.
8. The negative campaign tactics by McCain & Palin are a big turn-off.
9. People are tired of the Republicans after 8 years.
10. The Democratic base is fired up and will turn out to vote this time.

Mind you, none of these things are significant by themselves, and none of them are fatal. But it does point to a long road to hoe for the Republicans in November.

If I’m optimistic of a Democratic win, it’s by the narrowest of margins – maybe a 51% confidence level. A lot can still happen, and the Democrats do have a knack for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

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By: Yeah

Yeah — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 17:54:36 +0000

Hi Nick H. Peters: Perhaps your first two items cover this, but he’s also a terrible terrible awful candidate (as is BHO). So that’s another thing.

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By: Nick H. Peters

Nick H. Peters — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 16:53:56 +0000

3 things are going to do McCain in:

He is seen as another Bush

His blandness

People are going to vote for Obama because it will make them feel noble

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By: Sawgunner

Sawgunner — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 16:37:45 +0000

It looks as though John McCain is using the Fred Thompson campaign manual.
As Chas phrased it “a nonpartisan campaign”.
Pledging to cap how much you spend on advertising against Mr Moneybags sure seems ill-advised, eh Mr Campaign Finance Restrictions??

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By: Sawgunner

Sawgunner — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 16:34:09 +0000

The lyrics to a Hank Jr song come to mind: “It’s all over, but the crying”
I knew the nation was headed for deep kimchee when Jimmy Carter stepped up to advise Barack on foreign policy and economics.

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