Paradox of thrift
Recent data reveals that after decades of elevated spending, Americans are finally cutting back in order to save more. In the third quarter of 2008, U.S. consumer spending growth declined for the first time in 17 years, while U.S. household debt also declined for the first time since the Federal Reserve began tracking it in 1952.
Normally such figures would be heralded as good news, but not necessarily in a poor economy where thriftiness may only fuel a downturn. With increased saving comes decreased spending, which leads to a trickle down effect (i.e., store closings, job cutbacks, etc.) that further exacerbates the nation’s financial woes.
Dubbed the “paradox of thrift,” some economists believe spending will continue to decrease and lead to the biggest drop in the gross domestic product in a quarter-century. According to Elizabeth Warren, who is involved with overseeing the distribution of the government’s Troubled Asset Relief Program funds, “The idea that the American family will quickly spend us out of this recession is a fantasy. It won’t happen.”




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back to top43 Comments to “Paradox of thrift”
Hoping that people will spend, spend, spend while watching the gov’t spend recklessly is counterintuitive.
The reckless government spending is waking folks up to the unsustainability of this approach, so they’re preparing for the inevitable collapse by paying off debts and saving a bit.
This slowdown is only the beginning, IMHO. Sadly.
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Too bad that because of the CPSIA (google CPSIA and resale) it will be pretty much impossible to buy used things for children — no matter where or when made — come February. Unless the CPSIA law is changed. Contact your legislators!
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“…Americans are finally cutting back in order to save more.”
More?!!! We’ve hardly saved anything. Savings have been at an all time low…. while debt is at an all time high.
With no real Domestic production to create wealth (since most of it’s gone overseas), and savings at an all time high, and individual, corporate, and national debt at an all time high, how are we to “pay it back”?
Hope someone has a plan…
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Oh, oh, oh! I know!
Let’s raise taxes and SPEND MORE!
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Endy,
I think that’s the same legislation that have more than a few woodturners concerned. We’re used to turning tops for the kids (among other things) and this legislation seems to be curbing that unless we become licensed or some such nonsense…
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Make It Man, yep, that’s the one. And I think of the elderly guy at the seasonal farmer’s market in town from whom we purchased little wooden tops for our kids for Christmas one year. He’ll be out of businesss (at least THAT part of the business — making things for children). Crisis Pregnancy Centers giving away baby items to clients? This will no longer be allowed. Local consignment stores providing a service and small business in town? Closed.
And what will happen to these millions of items that will suddenly become hazardous material on Feb. 10? It will be dumped into our landfills of course.
While I think the bailouts were/are AWFUL, I honestly think this law has a greater potential to bankrupt the nation.
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Oh, and it’s not becoming licensed, Make it Man. It’s lead testing each and every product you make — at a minimum of $50 each. Plus you can’t do it yourself after a certain date, you have to hire a third party tester.
This is a law with a decent idea gone very, very bad.
CONTACT YOUR LEGISLATORS, friends!
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I ordered a new sofa yesterday.
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Thanks, Endyblue. I hadn’t even heard about this!!!
MOST of my kids’ clothes are from thrift stores… is Congress REALLY ready to destroy so many small businesses in one fell swoop?
THIS IS CRAZY!!!!!
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A couple of links:
http://www.thesmartmama.com/bg/ – don’t let the headline of the first post keep you from reading on (as if things are changing as hoped; it’s still a critical issue that needs response from the public).
http://cpsia-central.ning.com/
This law was passed last year in response to the presence of lead in things coming from China. This IS something that needs to be addressed! Our kids DO need to be protected. But this law is TOOO far reaching. It will do in millions of small business owners and thrift stores.
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From a post on another board:
If the product label says, “Made in China” just assume it is toxic.
If the product label says, “Made in the USA” assume it is safe.
There ~ THAT was simple…
And inexpensive…
And allows our nation to stop ALL questionable imports…
Instantaneously creates jobs in the good ol’ USA…
Which will demand the building of a bajillion safe factories here on our soil…
Which will employ more Americans…
Which will create safe products that will need to be distributed to stores…
Which will demand hiring people to transport them…
Which will demand fuel-efficient vehicles…
Which will drive yet another wonderful round of building and hiring…
AND, rather than filling OUR landfills with TOXIC materials, why don’t we just send the soon-to-be-illegal goods back to the countries of origin. Let THEM deal with their problem. Where are the rampant environmentalists when we need ‘em?!
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I’m baffled that enviromentalists aren’t staging sit-ins or some kind of protests against tossing all this stuff into landfills.
Whatever happened to REDUCE, REUSE, RECYCLE???
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And I just dropped off some childrens clothes and a lamp for little boys last week at Goodwill.
If I had known, I would have worked harder at finding someone with children the right ages for these things. I HATE to waste helpful things!!!
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This year, I’ll probably buy a car and a motorcycle (deals abound for both these days). However, I’ve been saving for both of them for years and will pay cash. Does that make me part of the problem or the solution?
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“With increased saving comes decreased spending, which leads to a trickle down effect…”
This simply isn’t so. I distinctly remember being told during the Reagan years (repeatedly!) that trickle down economics do not, will not, and cannot work.
So go ahead and save away. It will not have any effect on the economy.
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But “It’s for the children!”
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As long as we’re talking enviro-safety here…
Remember that as a woodturner, I’m one of the manufacturers that is using a ZERO carbon material….
Not that I put a whole lot of stock in that whole carbon footprint garbage… Al Gore can forget that.
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As I understand it (and I’ll admit I don’t understand much about economics), China is building a strong currency and economy because its citizens save relentlessly. That’s allowed them to buy into the American economy in a way that’s just not good for our long-term interests (thanks, Mr. Bush!)
And traditional capitalism has held that the only savings can provide bedrock for real long-term capital. That’s part of our current problem, that Wall Street, while government regulators winked and nodded (thanks, Mr. Bush!) built a house of cards and used it as capital.
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My wife sent me a link to that article, MomOf5. I’m going to fire a quick email to my representative now.
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Stubob – Agree that this is probably the best time in years to buy a car. I’ll be out shopping this month and looking for the best deals. Is it even worth considering anything out of Detroit?
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Personally, my thoughts echo MIM’s — what do they mean saving MORE, because I’ve had difficulty saving at all. I faced up to this problem on my own a few years ago, and cut almost all “extracurricular” spending for myself. I think things through more. Fortunately, I was brought up by people who lived as adults through the Depression, so I already had some habits well-established. I was never one to throw things out, and I use things up even more now. (I did get rid of an 18 year old recliner, but believe me, that sucker was dead! Even the cat couldn’t find a place to shred anymore!
I’m only kinda sorta kidding!) I drove my last car maybe not to the bitter end, but my mechanic was making parts for it.
American unwillingness to spend right now is a good thing, and I think we should save more. If we don’t, business won’t adjust what it has to adjust. If it’s in a bank, the bank can use it for credit — though one hopes they have learned a few lessons! At some point in life, whether as individuals or as a nation, we have to develop fiscal responsibility. I think our lack of savings was part of the problem and our reliance on credit cards made people adopt the Scarlett O’Hara “I’ll worry about that tomorrow” attitude — well, it’s tomorrow. When this happens as individuals, we hunker down and cut out all frivolity, giving ourselves a treat when we can. Maybe if more Americans do this in their personal lives, it will translate to business as well. Businesses, whether stores or any other type will just have to live within their means the same way as people must learn to do so. It’s going to hurt — a lot — but it’s like a cancer. Cut it out. If businesses go under, so be it. How many nail salons do we need? I don’t need any. I do my own.
I hope the change is not just in our personal finances. I hope we stop to think about what’s really important in life. It’s not designer clothes, shoes or purses. I’m mindful of Jesus’ lay up treasures that moth and time can’t corrupt.
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JJF, It was just Bush, lol. This has gone on for decades through Democratic and Republican presidents alike. Clinton didn’t do America any favors economically.
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He managed to end his presidency with a budget surplus. Bush is ending his with staggering record deficits.
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should have said “wasn’t” just Bush obviously. And Clinton approved policies that set up the state for the housing crisis. Do some Google on that.
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I’m sure Ann Coulter has a lot to say about it, Endyblue. That and why every other problem over the last eight years really is the fault of Democrats generally, and Clinton specifically.
The fact remains that the economy grew under Clinton and was strong when he left. But I do not doubt the ability of human beings to rationalize away the failures of their party or economic philosophy.
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Let me just be one to say that I got myself in a jam and I got myself out. I lost my job December 10. Even with the work I am doing I won’t get paid until February 5th. I don’t qualify for un-employment or any other help. Because I am not behind on my bills Ecumenical Ministries cannot help me. My stepbrother sent me $100 for Christmas and my stepmother sold some of my dad’s tools and gave me $100. I bought groceries. There is plenty in my house to eat. I had not bought myself any new clothes winter in over two years and what I got back in the Spring was all greatly reduced. My friend Debbie took me to Ann Taylor for Christmas and with what was on sale and a coupon spent $125 dollars on me. 2 pair of shoes, 2 pair of pants, 5 tops, 1 skirt, and 1 dress. You can believe we bargain shopped.
I have a CD left that was money left over from when my dad gave me money to pay for my wedding. He took 7k out of it last year and there is $1,000 left. I really, really, don’t want to cash it in…I kinda thought it would be neat to leave it there for when my daughter gets married, it will be one last thing her Papa provided for her.
Yes the economy is in the toilet but we all need to buckle down and do what we need to do. Myself included. We need to stop blaming the Democrats and the Republicans. We need to stop blaming Bush. We all did it. As a realtor I sold houses I knew were overpriced. As a realtor I went out on a limb to build a spec house with the guy I was dating and he beat me out of my share of the profit. I sold a house that he owed me a commission on. We broke up and I will never see that money. Me, myself, and I are responsible for the situation we currently find ourself in and lamenting about who should do what isn’t going to pay my bills.
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Travis (#20),
Consumer Report’s most reliable pick for 2008 – Ford Fusion.
From a January 5 Wall Street Journal article:
“In 2005, Toyota recalled 2.38 million vehicles in the U.S. — slightly more than the entire number of cars and trucks it sold that year. In 2007, Toyota had five recalls in Japan, totalling more than 800,000 cars and trucks.”
So, to answer your question, yes.
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Yes, the economy grew under Clinton and it grew under Bush, too. But it was all built on a house of cards. It’s not a Dem or Repub. problem, it’s a problem of employing simple, tried and true living within your means. as an individual or business. That has nothing to do with politics and everything to do with common sense, logic and reason.
The real problem is all of you fighting over whether or not this is a Dem or Repub problem. That’s why we don’t get anywhere. No one wants to look at the problem and solve it honestly. They just want to blame each other. It’s time to pay the piper and the longer we play this stupid blame game, the harder the recovery.
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I agree with you NJLawyer! It’s not a party problem, it’s a principle problem that BOTH parties are guilty of.
JJF, not sure why the Ann Coulter reference; I don’t listen to her or read her.
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So even if you don’t read my whole post read the last paragraph.
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Kim, I read your last paragraph. I don’t think your post was there as I was composing mine, and I was interrupted a few times. I agree with you. This problem didn’t develop just in the last 8 years. It’s an old problem, and it’s been here for decades. If I am to be honest, I, too, have done things financially over the years that I wish I could undo. I’m much better now and ahead on some things, but I’ve learned to make do.
If you need to eat, use the money, but if not, try to leave it alone. And if you do use it, put $10 bucks of it aside and start a new fund with that. The seed money will still be from papa!
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Party is over.
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ANd the hangover sure hurts!!!;)
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It is always good for the economy when people save. They say the economy needs a spending spree to boost it, but almost eveything my family exchanged at Christmas was made in China. It doesn’t help the economy to send money to China. It helps the economy for banks to have money to lend. It eventually hurts everyone when people get credit card debt because it is usurious. It traps people and eventually only tha bank profits.
As for the trillion dollar defecit: There ain’t that much money. You young people will see your dollar become worthless. It’s well on the way.
Someone asked Rush today how long a trillion seconds is. Someone figured it was 31,000 years.
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Kim, you make excellent points. We’ve all been quite spoiled with the easy, available credit. Our generation (baby boomers and younger) have never really had to sacrifice.
Check out this column that ran in our paper today:
http://www.dailybreeze.com/editorial/ci_11390141
(Welcome home Chas, good to have you back. You were missed.
)
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Travis (20) and Scott (27): The Fusion is made in Mexico. The best cars made in America are from Honda, Toyota, and Subaru. There are some decent cars with “American” name badges on them, including the Fusion, but none will have any resale value.
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On the web site of the furniture company from which my new sofa was ordered:
“Made in Chino, not China.”
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(that would be Chino, CA)
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Keynesian economics propose tax cuts and gov’t spending during bad times and tax hikes and reduced gov’t spending during good times. Its the latter part that’s not followed and the failure to follow it means in the next inevitable downturn gov’ts have very little room to move. Given the high household debt in America, to give tax cuts is non-productive since most households will only use it to reduce debt which does not have the desired effect of stimulating demand. Hence, the gov’t is left with public spending projects — a recession is a good time to repair and build new infrastructure — but high US gov’t debt makes this course very difficult hence America is in for rough time.
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Well, HRW, you need to get your house in order before you go out spending some more. That means we have to tough it out. There’s no point to a “quick fix” that just kicks the can down the road. Lessons need to be learned. School’s open.
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Americans are finally cutting back in order to save more.
In government-speak, that would be like saying they’re living beyond their means to a lesser extent.
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#41-Oh, you pegged it!
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My family is rather enjoying this recession. Gas prices are down, so we can afford to make an extra trip to the distantly-placed library. Food prices are down some, too, so we can afford to buy some fried chicken and potatoes at the deli if my mom is too exhausted to make dinner. Health foods are rather expensive to sell at a high school, so FHS is putting cheaper chocolate bars and cookies in instead. Life is good.
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