In his column yesterday, E.J. Dionne draws attention to a Pew Research Center poll that (like a lot of polls lately) should worry the GOP.

The Pew Research Center poll gave respondents the list of issues that appeared on the 2004 exit poll and asked them which one issue would matter most if they had to vote for president now. In the 2004 exit poll, 27 percent said moral values, but that number has dropped to 10 percent. Now, people are more concerned over the economy and jobs, with that number going from 21 percent in 2004 to 50 percent today.

Dionne notes, “Conservative moral values voters have become the heart of the Republican coalition, and if their ranks are shrinking, so is the GOP’s base.” This concern is reflected in yesterday’s Gallup poll, which found that the Republican base is heavily white, conservative and religious.

But just as Dionne chides analysts from 2004 for claiming that “moral values” voters will make the Democratic Party irrelevant, it also seems premature to say that a concern for moral values won’t increase again, once the economy improves. (Dionne says that Sen. Ted Kaufman, D-Del. is “likely to get his wish” to see “the last battle of the culture wars.”) Firm predictions — as this very poll proves — are foolish to make.