The Economist reports on the worldwide decrease in fertility rates. Not to be confused with overall population growth which continues to increase, the “replacement level of fertility” is the statistical number that causes “a country’s population to slow down and eventually to stabilize.” As the article shows, because of inertia, populations can rise while fertility declines.

You cannot talk about these stats without entering into worldview discussion, as even the title and subtitle of the article indicates: “Go forth and multiply a lot less: Lower fertility is changing the world for the better.”

Did you catch that last phrase, “for the better,” carrying the weight of the author’s worldview and values?

Sometime in the next few years (if it hasn’t happened already) the world will reach a milestone: half of humanity will be having only enough children to replace itself. That is, the fertility rate of half the world will be 2.1 or below. This is the “replacement level of fertility”, the magic number that causes a country’s population to slow down and eventually to stabilise.

The article explains the various reasons for the decline in fertility (desire for a better standard of living, more widespread educational opportunities for females), and includes the “special case” of China:

Lastly, a special case: China’s one-child policy, which began nationwide in the early 1970s. China’s population is probably 300m-400m lower now than it would have been without it. The policy (which is one of population control, not birth control) has had dreadful costs, including widespread female infanticide, a lopsided sex ratio and horrors such as mass sterilisation and forced abortions. But in its own terms, it has worked—20m people enter the workforce each year, instead of 40m—and, to the extent that China is polluting less than it would have done, it has benefited the rest of the world.

The article deserves a close reading and analysis, but for now I’ve got five kids waiting for me to get home to eat dinner with them. That’s part of my worldview and I’m sticking to it.

Behold, children are a heritage from the Lord,
the fruit of the womb a reward.
Like arrows in the hand of a warrior
are the children of one’s youth.
Blessed is the man
who fills his quiver with them!
He shall not be put to shame
when he speaks with his enemies in the gate.

(Psalm 127:3-5 ESV)