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A referendum on Palin?
Republicans have said that this year’s elections are a referendum on President Obama. That might be the case – I would also ask, might this be a referendum on Sarah Palin?
The two Republican gubernatorial campaigns rebuffed Palin’s offers to stump. They won, and largely on independent voters.
Doug Hoffman, the third party candidate in the NY-23 election who Palin endorsed, is by all appearances losing.
Topic: Politics, WorldMagBlog
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back to top9 Comments to “A referendum on Palin?”
Not really.
Yes, Christie and McDonnell won with independents. No, Palin is not popular with the center, although she should be. She was a center-right governor, no hard-liner, hardly addressed social issues, and worked well with Democrats in the legislature. But back on topic, the VA and NJ elections weren’t about Palin.
In NY-23, you might have a case if Hoffman’s support had plummeted after her endorsement. It did the opposite – it surged. That may have been due to other factors as well, including other Republicans who also endorsed Hoffman, such as Fred Thompson, Tim Pawlenty, and George Pataki. Hey, Pataki actively campaigned for Hoffman, so it would make more sense to suggest that the race was a referendum on him. But in reality, if Hoffman loses, it will simply be because his surge fell short. Perhaps he would have won were it not for Scozzafava’s endorsement of Owens. Palin likely helped Hoffman’s surge, but it would be a mistake to ignore the efforts of other conservatives such as Thompson. So this election wasn’t about Palin either.
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Matt, excellent points and analysis. If Hoffman wants to he can come run again and live another day as the winner.
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Matt,
Sure, Hoffman got a boost, but largely because he benefited from a lot of out-of-state donors who tried to use this as a race to show that a fringe-right candidate can win an election. Well, he didn’t. Once Scozzafava dropped out, it was a two-man race. And Hoffman lost…in one of the most heavily Republican districts outside of the South. Hoffman merely showed that when you pit a Rush/Palin conservative against a liberal in a GOP-leaning district, moderate-right folks will choose the liberal over a right-wing nutjob.
Palin has niche appeal, primarily to white evangelicals who are strongly motivated by social issues. She generally has no appeal to those of us who place some value on book-learnin’.
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I don’t think it’s a referendum on Palin.
Then again, I don’t think the elections are a referendum on Obama. I think they’re a referendum on the Democratic Party, in part for nominating someone like Obama. So, indirectly, perhaps. I only hope that we have some referendum left over for the Republican Party too.
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RSD, Consevatives in that district recruited Hoffman to run long before out-of-state supporters decided to compete with heavy-hitter Democrats on the state-wide and national level.
It appears you don’t know much about NY Republicans compared to those in the South. There is no comparison. 0bama appointed a liberal McHugh as Army Sec’y in hopes of pawning off another liberal in the Dems’ pocket. It had nothing, NOTHING to do with Sarah Palin.
This mess is what happens when a handdful of Party Bosses and Political Hacks cave in to Dems’ promises of government handouts to unions in a chronically economically depressed area. Fed-up voters in Upstate NY want to teach them a lesson.
Hoffman was able to end Scozzafava’s candidacy because the voters preferred a Reaganite citizen politician over a party Machine’s pick trying to impersonate a liberal like Sen. Snowe.
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Elections are almost never a “referendum” on anything other than the candidates running, and this one is no exception. These races have little or nothing to do with Obama or Palin. They are just about the individuals on the various ballots.
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If the Democratic party doesn’t stop trying to rebuild our entire healthcare system and FOCUS on the economy and JOBS and manufacturing in particular, I don’t think they’ll miss the meaning of the next ‘referendum’ this time next year.
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No, Emily. Let’s try not to think this way. Let’s put our convictions over politics and personalities.
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#6 What he said …
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