They’re just not that into economics
Daniel Klein’s recent Wall Street Journal article (“Are You Smarter Than a Fifth Grader?”) is one you’ll want to clip and save for handy reference. He documents how characteristically more ignorant liberals are of basic economics than conservatives are. Politicians in general are poorly versed in the dismal science, but the farther left you are on the political spectrum, the more clueless you are likely to be on the subject. This is alarming because, while politics is not reducible to economics, most of what government does involves economics, directly or indirectly, and the farther left the politician, the more likely he is to occupy himself with economic matters . . . sadly.
Here is an example of a question Klein posed to a range of respondents:
“Consider one of the economic propositions in the December 2008 poll: ‘Restrictions on housing development make housing less affordable’ People were asked if they: 1) strongly agree; 2) somewhat agree; 3) somewhat disagree; 4) strongly disagree; 5) are not sure. Basic economics acknowledges that whatever redeeming features a restriction may have, it increases the cost of production and exchange, making goods and services less affordable. There may be exceptions to the general case, but they would be atypical.
“Therefore, we counted as incorrect responses of ‘somewhat disagree’ and ‘strongly disagree.’ This treatment gives leeway for those who think the question is ambiguous or half right and half wrong. They would likely answer ‘not sure,’ which we do not count as incorrect.
“In this case, percentage of conservatives answering incorrectly was 22.3%, very conservatives 17.6% and libertarians 15.7%. But the percentage of progressive/very liberals answering incorrectly was 67.6% and liberals 60.1%. The pattern was not an anomaly.”
Liberals generally answer with what they want to be true, what they believe ought to be true, or perhaps with what they can force to be true with properly executed legislation, not with what actually happens in the world when it is left to itself. Klein observes, “[T]he left has trouble squaring economic thinking with their political psychology, morals and aesthetics.” May I venture to say that they don’t think; they feel?
Klein ends with this: “Governmental power joined with wrongheadedness is something terrible, but all too common. Realizing that many of our leaders and their constituents are economically unenlightened sheds light on the troubles that surround us.”
David Ranson provides us with an all too real example of this economic ignorance and wishful thinking in an article he wrote in the Journal last month:
“The feds assume a relationship between the economy and tax revenue that is divorced from reality. Six decades of history have established one far-reaching fact that needs to be built into fiscal calculations: Increases in federal tax rates, particularly if targeted at the higher brackets, produce no additional revenue. For politicians this is truly an inconvenient truth.”
This little nugget of the way things work even has a scientific sounding name: “Hauser’s Law.” On the basis of 60 years of consistent data, W. Kurt Hauser of the Hoover Institution found that there is an impenetrable ceiling on what wealth-squeezing government can ring out of the economy in the form of tax revenues. No matter how we try, federal tax receipts will not exceed about 19 percent of GDP under the best of circumstances. Under present conditions, which are far from the best, any attempt to raise taxes will reduce GDP and thus actually reduce revenues. Ranson’s article is another one for my “keeper” file.
But liberal politicians don’t care. They’re just not that interested in economics. What matters to them is “fairness,” even if it means bankrupting the country to pay for it.
Consider this golden moment during the final stages of the 2008 Democratic primaries. Barack Obama, saying what he knows the American people believe and want to hear him say but is completely alien to his way of operating, said he believes in paying as you go. But in response to Charles Gibson’s question, he shows his complete indifference to economic constraints when it comes to the egalitarian moral imperative of “fairness.”
Sen. Obama weaved back and forth between advocating fairness at the expense of revenue considerations and sounding fiscally responsible for the right-of-center American voter. But the two came crashing together in an embarrassing display of either contradiction or hypocrisy-Gibson caught it—when he said, “But what I also want to make sure is that our tax system is fair and that we are able to finance healthcare for Americans who currently don’t have it and that we’re able to invest in our infrastructure and invest in our schools. And you can’t do that for free.” In other words, we want a tax system that seems fair to a progressive liberal and yet one that can pay for the generous social programs for which that same sense of fairness requires.
The senator likely just didn’t see the contradiction because he is what Klein calls progressive/very liberal, and so he thinks primarily in sentimentally moral terms, not economic ones, and simply expects economic reality to support those judgments. (One also can think rationally about morality, of course, but liberals will have nothing to do with it because it leads to moral absolutism, which they absolutely abhor.) That is also how Obama the president has been behaving. Wall Street ought to be punished, even though a crippled and fettered Wall Street cannot fuel a recovery. BP ought to be pillaged and prosecuted as soon as possible, even though a bankrupt BP can neither clean up the spill nor compensate anyone for damages.
That, at least, is the generous interpretation.

















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back to top34 Comments to “They’re just not that into economics”
Sucn ignorance does not much matter poitially because “feelings” are the primary and dominant factor for American voters. All a politician has to do is make us feel good.
Learning comes later.
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You nailed libs: “The senator…is what Klein calls progressive/very liberal, and so he thinks primarily in sentimentally moral terms, not economic ones, and simply expects economic reality to support those judgments,” as shown in his “possibly” reply to Gibson’s statement of historical facts about tax rate increases decreasing federal revenue.
Will Chairman O ever GET it? Is he intentionally destroying our country or is it just his ignorant wishful thinking?
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The chart on the Hoover piece by Ransom is one of the most stupid and misleading things I’ve ever seen. He plots the highest marginal rate vs. total tax revenue without any effort to account for…oh…every other aspect of the tax system that may have changed over this period of time. That’s ridiculous.
For instance, it could be that when the tax rate of the top bracket dropped from 90% to 70% the tax system also dropped some set of deductions. Or maybe it increased the rate on lower tax brackets. Or maybe it changed the income cutoff at which the top bracket applies. Etc. etc.
Hauser’s overall point is hard to argue against: that there’s an upper limit on the % of wealth the govt. can collect relative to GDP. But it remains to be seen whether we’re on the “low” or “high” side of that. Given that, in past years, revenue has ranged up into the 19.6-20.6% range, and sits at 14.7% for 2009, it seems likely we’re on the low side. (Taxes being artificially low on a temporary basis in order to provide economic stimulus.)
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Might wanna dustoff your old Jude Wanniski or Arthur Laffer books. Everything once taught is lost if not passed on to the next generation.
A concept so many folks need to re-learn or learn in the first place is the Law of Diminishing Marginal returns. It’s real folks.As long as we have high tax states and low tax states and folks free to relocate, the nonFederal govts wont be unaccountable with their spending and taxing.
But you knew that already
I hope.
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I also like this quote: “Liberals generally answer with what they want to be true, what they believe ought to be true, or perhaps with what they can force to be true with properly executed legislation, not with what actually happens in the world when it is left to itself.”
They live in a world that is not real.
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But ALL politicians do. If this were not so, Fannie and Freddie would be worth more than a buck, and right now they aren’t worth a buck.
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Obama’s goal is “to be fair” regardless who is hurt. Punish the producers, which reduces revenue to fund social services. So now we’re all crippled. Now life is fair. And we are stupid to follow this philosophy.
As a small business owner, my father has always said there is no such thing as a tax on business. The tax is ALWAYS passed on to individuals, artificially driving up prices (inflation) and the cost of living. The true value of things hasn’t increased.
I live in Minneapolis MN, home of high taxes. There’s no good reason that housing here costs at least twice as much as it does in Columbus OH, where I moved from three years ago. It’s the taxes, stupid.
Some of the “essential services” my taxes subsidize are my city’s theater and art gallery–liberal administration approved and sponsored language and “entertainment”, and lottery advertising (a tax on the poor and ignorant–to be fair).
We homeschool our children. One of our many reasons for homeschooling is because the schools do not even attempt to teach basic economics, not even such a basic skill as how to balance a checkbook. Of course, it’s difficult to teach what they don’t practice.
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Buddy makes a good point. If we’re approaching Hauser’s 19% cap, then it would make no sense to increase taxes. That’s the situation that we faced in 1980.
Today, however, we’re at 14-15%. Thus, Hauser’s law is inapposite. That doesn’t mean that it necessarily makes sense to increase taxes. But, under our current economic circumstances, Hauser’s law does not counsel against it.
I’m with Innes in being bothered by the “fairness” language. After all, it’s difficult to say that our system is unfair when huge portions of the populace pay no federal taxes at all. But I think that it makes more sense to analyze the details of the proposed policies rather than looking at the packaging.
I’m not a huge fan of the President’s economic policies. On the other hand, the far right’s alternatives are equally as silly. In many situations, transactional costs are reduced through government regulation.
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As buddyglasss demonstrates economics and tax policy is far more complicated than two factors. Perhaps the lack of complex thinking allows some to think they are smarter.
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“But liberal politicians don’t care. They’re just not that interested in economics. What matters to them is ‘fairness,’ even if it means bankrupting the country to pay for it.”
“Fairness” is what liberal voters want to hear. Liberal politicians really mean “power” when they talk about taxes. Any way to try to milk or bilk more $$ out of the ordinary people gives them more power to play sugar daddy.
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RSD: I’m curious to know of ANY situation where govt. regulation reduces costs. In every business situation I’ve been involved in, small companies and large (I’m a bookkeeper mind you, so I’ve seen the money flow), regulation means extra work for me, for accountants, lawyers, and clerks to at best show compliance or at worst pay fees for some bureaucratic numbskull to “oversee.”
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Catigal, do you think ALL liberals are either greedy or ill-informed? Or could it be that some hold their beliefs just as passionantly, and for the same reasons, that you hold yours?
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You see, I know quite a few liberals and social liberals personaly. They usualy seem to have thought their argument out quite thouroughly and to have genuine concern for people. They also do not believe that government must NECESSARILY cause cause problems, or that the law of supply and demand is always true.
Thus, the article seems to presuppose that Conservatives are correct: so obviously Liberals are wrong. They would get the result that Conservatives were wrong if they changed their own presuppositions.
I’ts like testing the religious Right’s general scientific knowlege with a test that presupposes Darwinian Evolution to be true. I would likely fail that test, as would many other people I know.
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I’ll answer this question: “Catigal, do you think ALL liberals are either greedy or ill-informed?”
I think they are easily manipulated, and it won’t be until it hurts to have Obama’s hand in their pocket — as it is beginning to now — that anything will change. The libertarians are on the rise, and they won’t be silenced.
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NJLawyer, the world as we know it is changing. It will never be the same again. I would venture to suggest that the change will be good; but we’ll go through a lot of pain before we can see that good.
This is only the beginning.
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I don’t want this comment to be construed as cynical, but I am not as sure as you are Esther that the change will be good. I think there will be pain, but this thing can go either way. You want to believe that the majority will choose to go through the pain and come out cured of overspending on a personal and governmental level. I’m not so sure about that. As long as our government officials (i.e, Kerry) and wealthy business folk think of the rest of us as the “small people,” and as long as we accept their handouts, there won’t be real change.
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What the government could do and should have done when it wrote the banking legislation about credit cards last year was limit the fees. They didn’t. What they gave with one hand, they took away with the other. That’s one example. Congress has to decide to do what’s RIGHT for The People, not what helps their re-election.
People do not change. Not at their core.
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Esther, in general, yes. Take an honest look at the world. See how it works. Feeling compassion for the poor or downtrodden is not enough: we have a great deal of history we can study to know what will actually help the poor out of poverty and the downtrodden to real freedom and security. Why do you think taking from the “haves” to give to the “have nots” helps anyone? It doesn’t even work with children, much less adults and it is anything but “fair” (ask any child).
This is not rocket science; we’ve been here before and we know exactly what makes things worse and what makes things better economically, morally, and socially. When I was a liberal I was a wishful thinker – I felt so compassionate, but those feelings did not translate into making the world a better place. When feelings of compassion are combined with understanding, you end up with conservative principles, because they’re proven to work with human nature to improve everyone’s “lot” in life.
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“Or could it be that some hold their beliefs just as passionately, and for the same reasons, that you hold yours?”
There’s a difference: “passionately” is an emotional word, and I have found that my emotions don’t make wise decisions. I would say I hold deep conviction that my viewpoint is correct, because it is reasonably and logically supported by facts.
If your heart is – like mine – to see the poor and the sick become productive and healthy, then why hang on to “liberal” ideas that fail to do so every time they’re tried?
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“…the more clueless you are likely to be on the subject.”
Klein’s article is telling. So is the study being reported.
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NJLawyer, probibly you’re right about people not changing at the core. I am of the opinion that things will be better in the long run; but, like you said, it could go either way. I guess we’ll see.
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Esther, the current changes, in my opinion, are almost all in the direction of greater injustice, more oppression, and less fairness (despite utopian fantasy promises). In general…
1. Good behavior is being increasingly punished and bad behavior is being increasingly rewarded.
2. We are binging on government greed. We have not the slightest inclination for curbing our spending to match the money we have available. Spend now and keep increasing our spending, and pay much later–generations later.
3. We are deconstructing marriage and family with no regard for the deepest needs of our children. We attack their innocence and we demonize those who want to protect them.
4. We are not passing on an informed patriotism, or an awareness of America’s ideals and institutions.
5. The private sector is the only real resource for economic strength and we are strangling it at every turn. The private secotr is the horse that draws the cart full of goodies people feel entitled to. We keep starving the horse and beatig it while promising more goodies for people who expect the goodies to arrive at their doorstep. Thus, unemployment remains extremely high.
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Esther wrote; “…we’ll go through a lot of pain before we can see that good. This is only the beginning.”
And even our grandchildren won’t see the good. However, they will pay dearly for our selfishness.
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Catagal, thank you for answering so thoroughly. I guess I can see your point: as someone who’s “been there, done that” your opinion certainly carries more weight than some I’ve seen (IOW, you don’t hold your beliefs “passionately”
).
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Joel Mark, the reason I am optamistic is that so many people are, first educating themselves, and then speaking up.
Despite almost constant antagonism from the media, the TEA Party movement is growing; I remember some people saying that it would fizzle out back in January, but it’s growing. This year’s primaries are encourageing as well. In may cases incumbents have already lost their seats, and those who won the primaries are struggling to stay on top. We are seeing people who have been congressmen for 40+ years suddenly lose their own party’s nomination. We had an astonishing victory in Masachussetts. We are seeing a rapid growth in people’s knowledge about their history and government.
Granted, there is a LOOOG way to go before this looks anything like a victory. We are on the right track, though, and people are doing something instead of sitting around complaining.
Like I said, it could go either way and I could easily be wrong, but I’m hopeful in the long term. I think this will do to us what the Great Depression did to its people.
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Cactigal:
The interstate highway system, public safety (police and fire), etc.
The operative question in economics is whether transactional costs are minimized by the arrangement. I’d agree that, in most instances, private bargaining leads to minimized transactional costs. But in a few instances, economic efficiency is best served through state ownership or through ownership by state-regulated monopolies.
Innes’ example shows how regulations can often lead to wealth creation. Restrictions on housing development certainly increase the price of an isolated home. On the other hand, community-wide restrictions typically lead to greater long-term increases in property values. Therefore, a home in a restricted community is initially more expensive. But it’s much more economically sound to invest in such a home, as its value will increase more rapidly over time, thereby generating income that offsets the greater initial cost.
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RSD
Innes said
“…federal tax receipts will not exceed about 19 percent of GDP under the best of circumstances.”
Innes did not say this level of taxation was good or bed, it just is.
Why do you think the federal government should get this much money? I don’t.
I would like to see States get 5% and the Feds get 5%. They should only get to spend what taxes are. Oh, and by the way, we need to pay off our government debts in 15 years. I can’t get a personal credit loan that my children will have to pay off, why should the government?
If I spend too much, I have to cut my spending, don’t you?
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“The gazing populace receive greedily, without examination, whatever soothes superstition and promotes wonder”. David Hume as quoted by Bret Stephens in Tuesday’s WSJ The Man Who Would be King.
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I would recommend watching Andy Napolitano’s Freedom Watch on Fox cable. I don’t always agree with him, but he does explain the issues well. A program like that would not have been possible just a few years ago. I think he’s quite effective and glad he made the choice to resign as a judge and take a job that reaches more people.
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#27: What’s interesting is that federal revenues, as a percentage of GDP have remained in the 15-20% range over the past 60 years, whereas state and local revenues have ballooned. See this site:
http://www.usgovernmentrevenue.com/
State revenue as a percentage of GDP has risen from about 3% in 1945 to 10% in the 2003-2006 time frame. It fell to 9% in 2008, the last year for which there are official statistics.
Local revenue as a percentage of GDP was also around 3% in 1945. It rose to around 7% by the early 1990s and has stayed at that level up until 2007, the last year for which there are official statistics.
Your suggestion (5% to the feds and 5% to the states) would cut federal revenue by 65-75% and state revenue by approximately 50%. If you also want a balanced budget then, with 5% of GDP as its revenue, the federal budget for 2010 would be $731 billion. That’s about what we spend now on defense, if you include Iraq and Afghanistan. In other words, to reduce spending to that level without cutting the military budget you would need to get rid of Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, plus every other federal agency.
That seem like a good idea?
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#30 Buddyglass
Ponzi schemes are illegal in all 50 states. So, yes, get rid of Social Security and Medicare. They are illegal.
As for federal agencies, just what is the average Federal wage? Is it higher than the average non-government wage?
I realize that my idea is extreme. How about your ideas for more taxes?
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The Wall St. Journal we’d think would know that some employees of American companies _are_ exploited. These researches are just flat out wrong.
What goes on in the Northern Mariana islands is that US companies you’ve heard of, mostly clothing manufacturers, send “recruiters” to SE Asia and tell young women they can come work in “America” (technically true) but when they get there they find they are living on a small island in the middle of the Pacific and the company owns the place they live and the places they get their food and sets their wages and takes their passports.
Foreigners are exploited in America by putting them in fields with outlawed chemical fungicides, herbicides and pesticides because we know they can’t suit.
Pretending this doesn’t go on is EXTREMELY naive of these supposed economists.
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Liberals believe that goods should be distributed by other criteria than economic ones (based of work and value of inputs). Since they are the smart ones and know what would really be fair, they should decide. It’s a grand scheme.
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Lots of name calling and face-making by the author: virtually no demonstration of how the libs are wrong. They just are, you know, because they are libs…
What a crock.
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